Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.6#4
Expected Predictive Rating+21.7#3
Pace84.7#4
Improvement+3.4#51

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#5
First Shot+8.4#10
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#10
Layup/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+2.8#19
Improvement+0.6#147

Defense
Total Defense+9.7#9
First Shot+7.2#16
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#3
Layups/Dunks+4.3#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
Freethrows+2.6#31
Improvement+2.7#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 65.8% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 98.3% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round98.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen83.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight60.8% n/a n/a
Final Four37.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game20.9% n/a n/a
National Champion10.8% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a9.0 - 4.09.0 - 4.0
Quad 1b1.0 - 2.010.0 - 6.0
Quad 26.0 - 0.016.0 - 6.0
Quad 37.0 - 0.023.0 - 6.0
Quad 44.0 - 0.027.0 - 6.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 25   @ Wofford W 78-67 70%     1 - 0 +27.2 +10.8 +16.5
  Nov 09, 2018 298   @ Elon W 116-67 99%     2 - 0 +43.7 +20.3 +15.2
  Nov 12, 2018 103   Stanford W 90-72 96%     3 - 0 +19.9 +10.2 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2018 326   Tennessee Tech W 108-58 99.6%    4 - 0 +36.0 +17.3 +11.3
  Nov 19, 2018 259   St. Francis (PA) W 101-76 99%     5 - 0 +16.5 +2.8 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2018 30   Texas L 89-92 80%     5 - 1 +9.5 +10.5 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2018 108   UCLA W 94-78 93%     6 - 1 +20.5 +18.1 +1.7
  Nov 28, 2018 6   @ Michigan L 67-84 46%     6 - 2 +5.7 +7.9 -2.4
  Dec 05, 2018 263   UNC Wilmington W 97-69 99%     7 - 2 +19.2 -1.3 +15.5
  Dec 15, 2018 1   Gonzaga W 103-90 52%     8 - 2 +33.9 +20.9 +10.9
  Dec 22, 2018 7   Kentucky L 72-80 58%     8 - 3 +11.5 -2.5 +15.2
  Dec 29, 2018 86   Davidson W 82-60 95%     9 - 3 +25.1 +3.6 +19.5
  Jan 02, 2019 127   Harvard W 77-57 97%     10 - 3 +20.2 -1.1 +19.7
  Jan 05, 2019 93   @ Pittsburgh W 85-60 89%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +33.1 +10.8 +20.3
  Jan 08, 2019 31   @ North Carolina St. W 90-82 73%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +23.2 +8.8 +13.0
  Jan 12, 2019 19   Louisville L 62-83 81%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -8.9 -4.7 -3.9
  Jan 15, 2019 77   Notre Dame W 75-69 94%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +9.5 +1.7 +7.6
  Jan 19, 2019 66   @ Miami (FL) W 85-76 85%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +19.5 +18.4 +1.2
  Jan 21, 2019 12   Virginia Tech W 103-82 78%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +34.6 +27.0 +5.8
  Jan 29, 2019 100   @ Georgia Tech W 77-54 90%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +30.6 +5.8 +23.2
  Feb 02, 2019 19   @ Louisville W 79-69 65%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +27.7 +15.9 +11.8
  Feb 05, 2019 31   North Carolina St. W 113-96 87%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +26.6 +25.3 -1.5
  Feb 09, 2019 66   Miami (FL) W 88-85 OT 93%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +7.9 +7.7 -0.1
  Feb 11, 2019 2   Virginia L 61-69 55%     19 - 5 9 - 2 +12.2 +6.8 +4.2
  Feb 16, 2019 153   @ Wake Forest W 95-57 94%     20 - 5 10 - 2 +41.7 +19.1 +20.6
  Feb 20, 2019 3   @ Duke W 88-72 36%     21 - 5 11 - 2 +41.3 +9.9 +28.2
  Feb 23, 2019 13   Florida St. W 77-59 78%     22 - 5 12 - 2 +31.6 +12.5 +19.0
  Feb 26, 2019 33   Syracuse W 93-85 88%     23 - 5 13 - 2 +17.0 +23.6 -6.9
  Mar 02, 2019 29   @ Clemson W 81-79 72%     24 - 5 14 - 2 +17.5 +13.7 +3.7
  Mar 05, 2019 106   @ Boston College W 79-66 90%     25 - 5 15 - 2 +20.4 +4.5 +15.1
  Mar 09, 2019 3   Duke W 79-70 57%     26 - 5 16 - 2 +28.8 +9.1 +18.9
  Mar 14, 2019 19   Louisville W 83-70 74%     27 - 5 +27.9 +13.2 +13.8
  Mar 15, 2019 3   Duke L 73-74 46%     27 - 6 +21.6 +8.7 +12.9
Projected Record 27.0 - 6.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.4 65.8 32.5 1.7 0.0 100.0%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 65.8 32.5 1.7 0.0 100.0%